The five-day Thanksgiving shopping weekend runs from Thursday, November 26, through Cyber Monday, November 30, 2026, opening a holiday season the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts at $1.013 trillion. Last year’s NRF data shows Black Friday slipping slightly while Saturday, Sunday and Cyber Monday drew more shoppers.
Key Takeaways
- NRF forecasts November and December 2026 retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, after 3.1% growth to $972 billion in 2025.
- A record 202.9 million consumers shopped over the 2025 Thanksgiving weekend, up from 197 million in 2024 and well above NRF’s initial expectation of 186.9 million.
- Black Friday drew 80.3 million in-store and 85.7 million online shoppers in 2025, both slightly below 2024 levels.
- Sunday in-store traffic rose 27% to a record 32.6 million, and Cyber Monday online shoppers climbed to 75.9 million from 64.4 million.
- Thanksgiving weekend shoppers spent $337.86 on average on holiday purchases in 2025, the highest since 2019.
- NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers in 2026.
The Five-Day Stretch Opens a $1.013 Trillion Season
The National Retail Federation forecasts that retail sales in November and December 2026 will rise 4.2% over 2025 to $1.013 trillion, following 3.1% growth to $972 billion last season. The forecast excludes vehicle dealers, gas stations and restaurants, so it measures core retail activity rather than total consumer spending.
The Thanksgiving weekend is the first major test of that forecast. NRF’s annual consumer survey with Prosper Insights & Analytics tracks the full five-day period from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, and its 2025 results show how the weekend’s shape is changing. The same season matters for smaller sellers, with small businesses’ expected $118 billion in holiday spending riding on similar consumer trends.
Black Friday Remained the Top Day but Lost Ground in 2025
Black Friday was still the busiest day of the 2025 weekend for both channels, drawing 80.3 million in-store shoppers and 85.7 million online. Both figures came in slightly below 2024, when Black Friday drew 81.7 million in-store and 87.3 million online. Total weekend turnout still set a record, which means the growth came from the other four days.
Saturday, Sunday and Cyber Monday Drove the Growth
NRF’s day-by-day data shows demand spreading across the weekend. The table compares 2025 with 2024.
| Day | 2024 Shoppers | 2025 Shoppers |
|---|---|---|
| Black Friday (in-store / online) | 81.7M / 87.3M | 80.3M / 85.7M |
| Saturday (in-store / online) | 61.1M / 53.9M | 62.7M / 63.0M |
| Sunday (in-store / online) | 25.6M / 32.8M | 32.6M / 38.7M |
| Cyber Monday (online) | 64.4M | 75.9M |
Across the full weekend, 129.5 million people shopped in stores, up 3% from 126 million, while 134.9 million shopped online, up 9% from 124.3 million. Online growth outpaced in-store growth, but both channels expanded, and Sunday’s 27% jump in store traffic was the sharpest single-day increase.
Mobile Became the Default for Cyber Monday
Cyber Monday’s 2025 turnout of 75.9 million online shoppers was up about 18% from 64.4 million in 2024. Of those, 46.9 million shopped on mobile devices, up from 40.4 million the year before, making phones the leading way to shop on Cyber Monday for the second consecutive year.
Shoppers Spent $337.86 on Average Last Year
NRF reported that 96% of 2025 Thanksgiving weekend shoppers made a holiday-related purchase, spending an average of $337.86, including $225.74 on gifts. That was up from $315.56 in 2024 and the highest level since 2019, when the average reached $361.90. The survey of 3,099 adult consumers was conducted November 26 to 30, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
Prices Will Shape How the 2026 Numbers Read
NRF expects nearly half of the 2026 season’s growth to come from real consumer spending rather than higher prices. That distinction matters this year, after September’s 3.7% inflation reading showed prices rising faster than earlier in 2026. Higher spending totals over the weekend will not by themselves mean shoppers are buying more goods.
Seasonal Hiring and the Forecast Gap to Watch
NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers in 2026, a figure to read alongside October’s payroll and wage data. NRF typically releases its Thanksgiving weekend shopper projection the week before the holiday. Last year’s projection of 186.9 million shoppers came in about 16 million below the actual turnout, a gap that is useful context when the 2026 estimate arrives.
FAQs
When Is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday falls on November 27, 2026. The five-day Thanksgiving shopping weekend runs from Thanksgiving Day on November 26 through Cyber Monday on November 30.
How Many People Shopped Over Thanksgiving Weekend in 2025?
A record 202.9 million consumers shopped from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday in 2025, according to NRF, up from 197 million in 2024.
What Is the NRF Holiday Sales Forecast for 2026?
NRF forecasts that November and December 2026 retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, excluding vehicle dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
How Much Did Shoppers Spend Over Thanksgiving Weekend in 2025?
Shoppers who made holiday purchases spent $337.86 on average, including $225.74 on gifts, the highest level since 2019.
