The WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index rose 6.1 points to 91.1 in October, its highest level since July, as the share of CEOs expecting higher profits jumped to 56%. At the same time, 52% of the small business leaders surveyed said economic conditions had worsened over the past year.
Key Takeaways
- The WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index rose to 91.1 in October from 85.0 in September, back above its 12-month average of 89.7.
- 56% of small business CEOs expect higher profitability over the next 12 months, up 11 percentage points.
- 70% expect revenue growth, up from 61%, and 58% plan to add employees, up from 51%.
- 52% say economic conditions worsened over the past year, the highest share since May 2025.
- 44% report their primary business costs rose faster than the survey’s 3.4% CPI benchmark over the past three months.
- Only 9% of firms with $1 million to $4 million in revenue expect profits to fall, compared with 18% of firms with $10 million to $20 million.
Small Business Confidence Rebounds After Two Monthly Declines
The WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index climbed 6.1 points to 91.1 in October from 85.0 in September, reversing two straight monthly declines. The reading moved back above the index’s 12-month average of 89.7 and reached its highest point since July.
The monthly survey, conducted by Vistage in partnership with The Wall Street Journal, gathered responses from 368 leaders between October 1 and 13. All respondents run companies with annual revenue between $1 million and $20 million and are members of Vistage, a peer advisory organization for CEOs. The results reflect that group rather than a random sample of all U.S. small businesses, but the month-to-month shifts offer a useful read on how established small companies are planning.
Owners Expect Stronger Revenue, Profits And Hiring
Profit expectations drove the rebound. The share of CEOs expecting higher profitability over the next 12 months rose 11 points to 56%, while those expecting profits to decline fell from 16% to 12%, the lowest since November 2025.
Revenue outlooks improved as well. Seventy percent of small business leaders now anticipate revenue growth, up from 61% in September. Both the profit and revenue measures reached their highest levels since February.
Hiring plans strengthened alongside them. Fifty-eight percent of CEOs plan to add employees, up from 51% and the highest share since December 2025, while just 6% expect workforce reductions. Investment intentions edged higher too, with 38% planning to increase fixed investment, up from 35%.
Most CEOs Still Say The Economy Got Worse
Optimism about their own companies has not extended to the broader economy. Fifty-two percent of CEOs said economic conditions worsened over the past year, the highest share since May 2025. Only 21% expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, up from 18% in September but still near the lowest levels since July 2024.
That split defines the October results. The confidence rebound came from improved expectations for individual businesses, not from a belief that the economy is turning around. Owners appear to be planning around their own pipelines and pricing power while bracing for a difficult backdrop.
Labor, Fuel And Insurance Drive Rising Costs
Higher confidence does not mean costs are easing. When asked how their primary business costs changed over the past three months, 44% of CEOs said costs rose faster than the 3.4% CPI benchmark cited in the survey question. Another 39% reported increases in line with that benchmark. For context, the Labor Department’s September CPI reading came in higher, at 3.7%.
Labor and talent costs were the most frequently cited pressure, with leaders pointing to wages, recruitment, retention and the cost of attracting qualified workers. Fuel and energy ranked next, reflecting September’s jump in gasoline prices that pushed fuel costs higher for small businesses. Insurance and health care added further strain, and some respondents cited rising technology costs, including software subscriptions and AI tools.
The Gap Between Revenue And Profit Expectations
The most telling number in the October survey may be the distance between two others. Seventy percent of CEOs expect revenue growth, but only 56% expect profitability to improve. That 14-point gap suggests many leaders expect to sell more without keeping proportionally more of it.
Vistage pointed to a concept from ITR Economics called “profitless prosperity,” which describes rising sales paired with shrinking margins as costs climb. For businesses with limited pricing flexibility, growth in the top line may not translate into stronger results on the bottom line.
How Small Businesses Are Responding To Higher Costs
Open-ended responses in the survey point to three main strategies. Some businesses are raising prices, rates or fees to pass costs to customers, though several reported that price increases have lagged their expenses or cost them business. Others are absorbing higher costs, often because fixed contracts or competitive markets limit their ability to raise prices.
A third group is changing how it operates. Those responses included switching to alternative suppliers, bringing work in-house, cutting usage and considering lower-cost equipment. Many companies are combining approaches rather than relying on one.
Smaller Firms Feel Worse About The Economy But Better About Profits
Sentiment varied by company size. Sixty-three percent of firms with $1 million to $4 million in annual revenue said the economy worsened over the past year, compared with 50% of firms with $5 million to $9 million and 47% of firms with $10 million to $20 million.
Yet the smallest firms appear less exposed to profit pressure. Only 9% of companies with $1 million to $4 million in revenue expect profits to decrease, compared with 18% of those with $10 million to $20 million. Cost pressures were similar across all three groups, with 43% to 45% reporting increases above the survey’s benchmark.
How Vistage Data Compares With NFIB’s Read On Main Street
A separate measure offers additional context. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which surveys NFIB member businesses, declined 0.8 points in September to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below its 52-year average. NFIB’s October reading has not yet been released, so the two indexes currently reflect different months, but both show small business sentiment hovering near long-term norms rather than breaking sharply in either direction.
FAQs
What Is The WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index?
It is a monthly measure of small business sentiment based on a survey of Vistage member CEOs at companies with $1 million to $20 million in annual revenue. Vistage conducts it in partnership with The Wall Street Journal.
What Was Small Business Confidence In October 2026?
The index rose 6.1 points to 91.1 in October 2026, up from 85.0 in September. It was the highest reading since July.
What Costs Are Small Businesses Struggling With Most?
Labor and talent costs were the most frequently cited, followed by fuel and energy. Insurance, health care and technology costs also added pressure.
How Are Small Businesses Handling Rising Costs?
CEOs reported raising prices and fees, absorbing higher costs, or changing operations through new suppliers, in-house work and reduced usage. Many are combining these approaches.
How Does The Vistage Survey Differ From The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index?
The Vistage survey covers Vistage member CEOs at companies with $1 million to $20 million in revenue. The NFIB index surveys NFIB member businesses and has tracked small business conditions monthly since 1986.
