Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion from November 2026 through January 2027, up 4.0% to 4.8%. Bain & Company expects November–December sales to top $1 trillion for the first time. Both forecasts came out before September data showed consumer confidence at its lowest level since 2014.
Key Takeaways
- Deloitte projects holiday e-commerce sales of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, up 7.5% to 8.4% from $294 billion last season.
- Bain forecasts 4.5% nominal growth for November and December, but says inflation will account for more than half of that increase.
- Bain expects nonstore sales to grow 9% and generate about 60% of total holiday sales growth, while in-store sales grow 2.5%.
- The share of online shoppers planning to start holiday shopping on AI platforms rose to 24% from 17% in 2025, according to Bain.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, below the 89.2 economists expected.
- Bain expects sales of furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, and food and beverage to stay flat.
Two Forecasts Point to Nominal Growth
The early holiday forecasts agree on direction, though they measure different periods. Deloitte’s forecast covers November through January. It projects growth of 4.0% to 4.8%, compared with 4.1% growth to $1.63 trillion in the same period last year, based on U.S. Census Bureau data that excludes autos and gasoline.
Bain & Company’s forecast covers November and December. It projects 4.5% nominal growth, up from 3.5% in the 2025 holiday season, which would push sales past $1 trillion for the first time. Bain bases its outlook partly on a Consumer Lab survey of more than 1,100 consumers.
Deloitte’s model depends heavily on income. Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, said disposable personal income remains an important input, and Deloitte projects it will grow 4.5% to 5.2% over the holiday season.
Inflation Drives Much of the Headline Growth
Bain’s forecast includes a caveat that matters for retailers. More than half of the projected nominal sales increase will come from higher prices rather than more goods sold. In other words, a trillion-dollar season does not necessarily mean a stronger one.
Category detail supports that reading. Bain expects general merchandise, clothing and accessories, and e-commerce to grow in both price and units. Furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, and food and beverage are expected to stay flat. Consumers told Bain that clothing, cited by 43%, would overtake groceries, cited by 37%, as their largest holiday spending category, with gift cards close behind at 36%.
E-Commerce Carries the Growth
Both firms expect online channels to drive most of the growth. Bain projects nonstore sales will grow 9% and account for about 60% of total sales growth, up from 50% last year. In-store sales still make up about 70% of the season, but Bain expects them to grow only 2.5%, the same as last year.
AI Platforms Become a Starting Point for Holiday Shopping
The holiday shopping journey is shifting. According to Bain, 24% of online shoppers plan to begin their holiday shopping on AI platforms, up from 17% in 2025. Retail and brand websites remain the most common starting point at 60%, up from 51%, and another 13% plan to use retailers’ own AI agents.
Bain’s retail practice advises retailers to treat AI as a competitive factor in pricing. AI-enabled comparison makes price gaps easier for shoppers to spot. That increases the value of products that cannot be easily price-matched line for line. Aaron Cheris, partner and global head of Bain’s Retail practice, said retailers need to balance price and promotions and use AI to improve the customer experience.
September’s Confidence Data Challenges the Outlook
The forecasts were published in early September. Data released since then tests some of their assumptions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest level since 2014 and well below the 89.2 economists expected. The Expectations Index fell to 63.6, well below the 80 threshold the Conference Board associates with a coming recession.
For the first time in the question’s recent history, more consumers described their family’s finances as “bad” than “good.” The Conference Board said write-in mentions of prices, particularly oil and gas, hit new highs. The University of Michigan’s final September sentiment reading fell 7% from August and 12.7% from a year earlier.
Where the Forecasts and the Data Diverge
Bain anticipated many of these headwinds, including high gasoline prices, labor force participation at a five-year low, falling personal savings rates, and credit card delinquencies above the 10-year average. The sharpness of September’s decline in sentiment is the new variable.
Bain’s tailwinds were higher tax refunds, up $43 billion from last year, and a 23% year-over-year rise in the S&P 500 that supported upper-income households. That second support weakened in September. The S&P 500 fell during the month while still finishing the third quarter up about 2%. The Russell 2000 dropped more than 5% in September.
What Retailers and Small Businesses Should Track
The forecasts suggest a season where revenue grows but margins remain under pressure. Several signals will show whether the projections hold. October retail sales data will come first. Bain notes that about 90% of shoppers plan to spend during at least one major sale event, including October promotions. The National Retail Federation’s holiday forecast is still to come. Spending by upper-income households is the other key signal, since Bain’s outlook depends on their confidence.
For small retailers, the practical takeaway is inventory discipline. With much of the growth driven by prices and online sales, unit demand in flat categories may disappoint. Products that cannot be easily compared on price appear to be the most protected.
FAQs
How much will holiday retail sales be in 2026?
Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion from November 2026 through January 2027. Bain & Company projects November–December sales will top $1 trillion for the first time.
How fast will holiday e-commerce sales grow in 2026?
Deloitte projects holiday e-commerce sales will grow 7.5% to 8.4%, to between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion. Bain expects nonstore sales to grow 9%.
How many shoppers will use AI for holiday shopping?
Bain reports that 24% of online shoppers plan to start their holiday shopping on AI platforms in 2026, up from 17% in 2025.
Is inflation driving holiday sales growth?
Yes, in part. Bain expects inflation to account for more than half of the projected 4.5% nominal increase in November–December retail sales.
How could low consumer confidence affect holiday sales?
The Conference Board’s index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest since 2014, as concerns about prices and household finances grew. Holiday forecasts published before that data may face pressure if weaker sentiment leads to lower spending.
